Maniac Attack

Any serious gambler knows that the most important fundamental of success is to find a way to get the odds in their favour.  Betting against the odds is a losing proposition.  Any serious Hold Em player knows that having position on a player is a massive advantage, and being out of position is quite the opposite, biasing the odds in the opponents favour.

So why the hell did I sit for about 2 hours last night on the immediate right of a maniac?

Put simply it was that I wanted to beat him, and there was a waiting list of about 10 players.  I didn’t want to throw away the opportunity of playing against such a rare beast, and in doing so I allowed myself to stay in the worst seat at the table.

To be fair to myself I was totally owning him for a while.  I had paid enough attention to see that he had an incredibly high 3-bet and squeeze rate, especially when the original raiser was in mid to late position. They were actually higher than his open raise rate.  I hadn’t seen much of his play post flop (because it didn’t usually get far through the hand before everyone else had folded), but I knew that he was ridiculously aggressive pre-flop.  The first hand we tussled on was very marginal and debatable as to whether I should have played it.  Perhaps not, but the thing was that I wanted to take advantage of the fact that I was unknown to him and I’d seen him wildly raise (and usually win or fold without showing) against new players to the table.  I didn’t want to wait too long for a premium hand just to see him fold because he thought I was a nit.

I raised from a late position with ATo and a one early limper.  Exactly as I expected, he quickly 3 bet and it was folded back round to me.  At this point I’m certainly not planning on folding and I don’t think I can really call, because I think I’m ahead of his range and I don’t want to give him a chance to either catch, or blow me off my hand with air and position.  I think I’m better getting the chips in now to maximise my thin value.   It was always the plan to out muscle him.  So I put in a moderate 4-bet, he 5-bets quickly and I shove, with a slightly sick feeling in my stomach that I shouldn’t have got myself into this position.  He quickly calls and shows A9s.  My 10 holds and I double up, putting him back down to just over 100 big blinds and leaving me with twice his stack.

For the next few hands that I raised, even though I was opening often, he became a lot tighter and folded most of them.  After a while though he realised that I was opening pretty wide and went back to his usual antics.  I tried to balance myself between folding and continuing when he 3 bet me which tightened up my opening range.  I didn’t want to 4 bet anywhere near as wide as ATo from then on because I knew he had been hurt by our first hand and had definitely paid attention.  I also knew he was capable of betting big with a medium strength hand but he would probably be quite balanced in that spot against me, as opposed to biased towards bluffing as he was against others at the table.

I took a few moderate pots off him either hitting or outplaying him after the flop but nothing massive, basically because we both knew the other was capable of big bets with a wide range and I felt we were both looking for spots to get it in with a premium hand.

I was outdrawn on by other players a couple of times which kept my stack in check and his aggressive play brought him up to my level.  He was still 3 betting me enough to allow me to get aggressive with slightly less than premium hands and he took a chunk of my stack with QQ against my JJ.

The killer blow came when I opened in late position with T9s.  I called his 3 bet and it went 2 handed into the flop which came T72, giving me top pair with a flush draw.  I felt confident he would bet with any two cards so I checked.  He put about two thirds of the pot in and I raised to about 2.5x his bet.  He thought for a while and re-raised not much more than the minimum.

At this point I thought that it was possible that I was behind but that more often I would be ahead.  Even if I was behind I knew that I had a decent amount of equity.  He had previously seen me check raise and give up on the flop to his 3-bet on a similarly innocuous board so I thought he could push with air.  The time he took to make the shove also gave me the impression he was more likely to be bluffing or semi bluffing because of his previous tendencies.

I couldn’t take over pairs out of the equation but didn’t think it would be the case most of the time.  Top pair with a better kicker was definitely a possibility but of course I had top pair which made it less likely.  Straight draws, even gut shots, and flush draws made up a big part of his range, or even just two over cards.  I took a moment and decided to shove.  He turned over AJs for the nut flush draw.  The flush didn’t come in but that was incidental once an ace hit the turn.

I was ahead when I shoved, but not by much: according to pokerstove I was a 52.3% favourite.  With the dead money in the pot I’m sure it was the right decision.

I’m not really that unhappy with my play, despite being up over two buy-ins and leaving the table one buy-in down.  The thing that gets me, the thing that I thought about when I was falling asleep last night, was the decision to play him in that position in the first place.  After the first hand I had doubled up from him and introduced a new dynamic.  He knew that he could play in position on almost every hand and he reacted well to my changes of gear.  That made life very difficult for me.

What I should have done is look at the long game.  If I had disappeared off the table straight after that hand he might not even have remembered me next time I sat down in position on him.  I will still make it my mission to find him at a table where I get decent position on him, but I could have done that right from the beginning.  Next time I find myself in terrible position to a maniac, I’ll think a few more times before I get comfortable.

On a more positive note I really feel like I’m starting to make a breakthrough.  For a long time I’ve been confused as to how better players than me can play 4 or more tables and still manage to analyse their opponents well enough to be able to find enough spots to exploit.  I feel like I have an increasingly good knowledge of how to think about different situations, but that I haven’t applied that knowledge well enough.  Multi-tabling leaves me languishing in ignorance and missing opportunities to make notes, and playing just a single table provides the challenge of remaining focused for long periods of time without playing very many hands, which I often struggle with.  

One thing that’s helped massively is my way of analysing hands and what they mean about the players who played in them.  Using Poker Tracker 4 allows me to mark hands for analysis at a later point, which I have been doing more liberally.  The critical factor is that I’m actually going through them all now! If I can make the notes on the fly then I do, but once I’ve got a reasonable number of hands built up I will sometimes sit out or take a break and go through them all before taking my seats again.

At the beginning of the month I went through a period of seriously cold cards.  I was playing single table tournaments on PokerStars, some of the time not playing very well, most of the time finding myself on the wrong end of coolers and getting out drawn.  I’ve had nasty runs like that before, but never so many in a row without a single cash.  That’s put a dent in my bankroll but my cash winnings have put it up to a little over $200.  I started with just $28 at the beginning of August, so it’s hardly amazing, but this is all about building my bankroll in the proper way.  At least it’s going in the right direction.

The fight continues…

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Poker Outs – No More Cheat Sheets

One of the many things that I want to achieve as I strive to fulfil my poker potential, is a highly in-depth knowledge of the maths involved.  Being an online player for so long, I’ve just got used to taking advantage of my faceless avatar and stowed the odd cheat sheet or two just out of sight of my opponents.  The fact that I can, is however, a lame excuse for a lack of complete knowledge.

I decided last night to try and memorise my outs vs odds table to start me off.  To make sure we’re all on the same page, what I mean is for any particular number of outs, what are my odds of improving on the turn or river.   I decided that the number I should focus on (for ease of use) is what my odds are for improving on the river only.  This is ever so slightly better odds than on the turn because there is one less card in the deck.  I would normally err on the side of being conservative with estimates to make sure I stay on the right side of expected value, but in this case I think it’s balanced by the amount of times you’ll see both cards for the price of a call on the flop.

I’m now going to go through what I remember without looking at the chart.  No really, I’m not going to look.

OUTS
% OF HITTING
OUTS
% OF HITTING
1
2
12
25%
2
4%
13
27%
3
6%
14
29%
4
8%
15
31%
5
10%
16
34%
6
12%
17
36%
7
15%
18
39%
8
17%
19
41%
9
19%
20
43%
10
21%
21
45%
11
23%
22
47%

Yup, checking that over I’ve got it spot on.  At least as spot on as I was aiming for.  As you can see I’ve rounded everything down to whole numbers, to help make it easy to remember.

You might think that I’ve done pretty well to recall all that (if you believe me), especially when I tell you that I only spent five minutes committing the numbers to memory (it actually took less time than creating that table – come on wordpress, sort out your tables).  But it actually wasn’t at all difficult.

Once I rounded everything down I pretty soon noticed that the first 6 are simple – the chance of hitting is double the number of outs.  When it gets to 7 and up it’s just double and add one.  This continues until 16 when it becomes double plus 2 and then 18 it changes to double plus 3.

So all I actually remembered is that it is double the outs plus 0, 1, 2 or 3 with the changes being at 7, 16 and 18.  That’s why it only took five minutes.  Why on earth hadn’t I done that before?

  • 1 – 6  = double
  • 7 – 15 = double + 1
  • 16 – 17 = double + 2
  • 18 up = double + 3

I think that it’s this sort of simple mnemonic that is going to be the key to unlocking the maths behind poker for me.  Maybe it could be for you too.

Pressure Kills My Poker Game

After a rubbish night on Friday, I set myself up to set things straight on Saturday.  So far, that hasn’t happened.  Playing a mixture of cash and tournaments I made another loss.  That’s three sessions in a row, a very undesired record equalling tally.  Once again everything felt a bit too rushed.  I think I was too eager to get back on terms.

I think the main thing that is going wrong for me at the moment is the influence of my personal life on poker.  Don’t worry I’m not going to bore you with all that, but suffice it to say that along with a large proportion of society right now, we’re pretty strapped for cash, and poker winnings often make a big difference to us.  That pressure is killing my poker game.  The loses that I’ve made recently are only eroding previous profit, but considering what I’ve just said, I’d have to think pretty hard if that wasn’t the case.

This evening I played only tournaments, going pretty deep in a low buy-in, large tournament (2000+ entrants) and ended up being frustrated with an 82nd place finish.  In terms of finishing position I don’t think that’s too bad, but considering the prize and the time committed, I can’t say that I was exactly thrilled.  I played in six tournaments and cashed in three, leaving myself a few quid in profit.

Whilst it was only a dent in eroding the loses of the weekend, in terms of the time committed there is a silver lining.  I had quite a few mundane tasks to complete which I managed to get done whilst the tournaments were in the early stages, and then got more involved with them once it got nearer the money.  There’s no way I would play like that with a cash game, but with tournaments I think it’s more justifiable.  I still felt that I made enough decent moves based largely on the statistics I had for each player, thanks to the Poker Tracker 4 HUD.

So overall a profitable but not overly successful evening.  The fight continues…

Back To The Books

From the title of this post you’d be forgiven for thinking that I’ve been studying.  That’s exactly what I haven’t been doing.  I’ve had a mildly profitable and short night at the tables, finishing a little over £10 up.  However, I failed to cash in any of three 180 player sit and go tournaments on PokerStars, with the cash tables once again winning out in the battle of tournaments vs cash.  There are probably quite a few hands I could go over and analyse but to be honest, I don’t think it’s the best thing I could do right now.

I’m going to go to bed attempting to feel pleased with a small profit, along with the reminder that I really need to work hard at this stuff, and that striking a balance between table time and study is vital.  I really don’t think I played well in any of the tournaments and I didn’t feel confident.  I may have a little time available tomorrow evening and I think I need to use it to get back to the training program.

What Should I Be Playing?

After feeling pretty pleased with the results of my experimental single table tournament earlier, I wasn’t sure whether to go play a fixed limit cash game, the format that I used to make all my money on, or further no limit tournaments.  It’s hard to turn down the money on offer on a Friday night in favour of playing tournaments with the main goal being improvement rather than financial gain.

I decided to play some cash games but it didn’t start off too well at all.  I found myself playing differently than I would usually, incorporating tactics that are just not right for those games.  I took a bit of a hit and felt quite annoyed with myself.  But the new me knows how to deal with that.  So I had a short break and pondered the situation over another coffee.  In that time I reset my thinking and decided to focus on the job in hand.  It wasn’t too long before I made back the lost money with a small bit on top.

By that time there weren’t as many soft tables and to be honest, I wasn’t really feeling it.  So I opened up the tournament tab in PokerStars to see what was available.  The ‘Hot $4.40’ was still taking late registrations.  It had already been running nearly 2 hours and registration was about to close.  I knew that buying in would start me off with just 12 big blinds but I thought I’d take a shot at getting lucky.  A few hands in I was dealt a pair of tens with 2 limpers in, so I shoved all in, won the hand and suddenly had just short of the average stack.

I made sure that I was following the rules I’ve made for myself and the guidelines that I have so far uncovered in the Nick Wealthall training program.  I’ve just busted out with about 140 or so players left.  Total entrants 6730, I entered with about half of those remaining.  I felt like I played well although from the point of about 400 players left I was clinging on a bit and didn’t have too much room to manoeuvre.  I just couldn’t get back to the average stack.

Looking at the tournament from a learning point of view, I’m fairly pleased even though I could perhaps have done better, but looking at it from a financial view I only made a rather measly $14, for about 3 hours work.  That’s not exactly the big time is it?

I’ve had the question that this poses rolling around in my head for a long time.  Should I be bothering with large tournaments?  The fields are so big that final table payouts are a very good haul, but a finish like I had just isn’t worth the time if you look at it purely financially, especially when you consider all the times I’ll bust out before the cash.  I could be making more playing other games.

I think I might give some more sit and go’s a chance.  I had some success in the $4.50 180 player tournaments a few months back, finishing 1st, 2nd, 4th twice and a couple with minimum cashes, over the course of about 15 entries.  The thing is that you’re looking at about 4 and a half hours to complete it, which is fine when you finish in the top 5, but lower than that and there’s not a great hourly rate.

I think I need to give some serious thought to the tournaments that I play in.  I also want to start thinking about no limit cash games, especially now I’ve started to get my aggression up.

Before that though, it’s definitely time for bed.

Serious Hard Work

After getting very excited by the arrival of Poker Tracker 4 the other night, I didn’t actually get to use it straight away.  First off I had a slight technical issue, which incidentally would have been solved a lot quicker had I just asked myself the obvious question ‘Have you tried turning it off and on again?’, and then there was some housekeeping to be done.  It took a long time to import all my data from my Poker Tracker 3 database, so much so that when I woke up in the morning I found my laptop had turned itself off with 10’s of thousands of hands still to be imported.

And then, of course, life got in the way and I didn’t manage to find an appropriate time to play any poker.  Once again I’m looking at that positively because it means I’ve been following my Golden Rules.

So long story short, tonight was the first time I could have a proper play with it.  “But wait!”, I hear my millions of dedicated twitter followers shout, “you forgot about the Nick Wealthall training!”  Ok then, I’ll get to that first.

Last night I signed up for Nick’s new monthly training program, convinced not only by his video snippets that I have been watching over the past few months, but also because the first month was free.

In all honesty I signed up for it fully believing that I would benefit from the first month and cancel before the second month, basically because it’s not cheap, but I generally am!  After my first session this evening, I think I’m in serious danger of paying him a considerable amount of money over the coming year.  That all depends on my results and my profits being enough to justify it.  I’m not going to make my mind up just yet.

Today I watched the first module video, then watched it again whilst taking notes, and watched the second module video.  The first month is entitled ‘How To Play Aggressively Pre Flop And Dominte Aggressive Players’.  I think the title speaks for itself really, doesn’t it?

So, to the poker table.  I fired up PokerStars and the Poker Tracker 4 software and decided to play a low buy-in STT (single table tournament) with a standard structure.  I took it as an experimental game, paying close attention to the techniques that Nick had been discussing.  It started very well.

It was a 9 seater table, 1500 starting stack, 10/20 for the first level.

In the first hand I was second to act with junk, so I was going to fold regardless.  The player under the gun raised, I folded as did the two players to my left.  The next player re-raised and it was folded around to the original raiser who called.  I can’t remember the flop, but that’s what the tracking software is for!  Looking now it tells me that it was a rags flop of 4d 2h 6h.  The original raiser checks and folds to the aggressor’s bet.

In the second hand I found myself with a pocket pair – 66 – and decided to raise to 80.  I would often limp in this spot hoping for a cheap flop and a third 6 to be in there.  But that’s not me anymore!  The same guy re-raises to 140 and it’s folded around to me.  At this point I’m thinking that I have no information on my opponent other than the first hand. He could easily have hit a hand bigger than mine, but my gut said he was one of those guys who likes to start out of the blocks fast. Most likely I was a small favourite to his two overcards.

I could call and hope to hit a set, but that would put me on the back foot and I’d only see that third 6 one time in every eight flops. That’s what I would often have done in the past, arguing that the implied odds were good enough for a call.  I couldn’t do that, not after the training I had just been listening to.

I could fold worrying that I was behind already or that I would be guessing too much when the flop was dealt because I didn’t know the villain’s starting hand range and I was out of position.  I didn’t want to do that either.

So the new aggressive me 4-bets to 380, representing a strong hand, especially considering I was playing out of position, and he had no knowledge of me either.  It didn’t take long for the 5-bet to come and he’d put me all in to call.  I thought for a moment and decided that the most likely hand for him to have was two overcards, leaving it at a virtual coin flip but with me just ahead.

If you look purely at the odds and assume I was right in what I thought he was holding, it’s got to be call.  However, you’ve also got to look at the fact that I would be out of the tournament on the second hand if I called and lost.  On the other hand if I fold I’m putting myself down nearly a third of my chips and leaving myself in an undesirable position early in the trounament.  That’s not me.  Not anymore.

So I call knowing that if I win I’m putting myself in a great position, and saw that I was right, he was overly aggressive with Ace Jack off suit.  Fortunately the odds stuck with me and he missed, doubling me up and giving me a dominating early chip lead.

I could have been out on the second hand but I feel like once I decided to play the hand I played it as well as I could considering the small amount of information that I had on my opponent.  Question is, should I have played 66 up front in the first place?

I went on to crush the tournament playing agressive poker, without sucking out once and I lost chips on several occasions when I had the best of it.  My only real hiccup from that point was when it was down to three players, I did drop down into last place, but not by much and I went on to win.

Until it got down to the last three and my two opponents started getting more aggressive, I felt like the table was scared of me.  I was picking up free chips all over the place, without even really attacking the blinds too much.  I lost count of how many times everyone folded to my big blind, giving me another free round.

I also ended up playing more hands than I would normally because I was finding more and more spots where I could push my opponents out without any real resistence.

Ironically I struggled a little with the Poker Tracker 4 software because everything has been moved around somewhat.  But I had enough information on my opponents from the HUD (heads up display) to help me out.  It looks like there’s so many great features on there and I can’t wait to get discover everything that it can do.  There’s lots of hard work ahead of me to study as well as to customise the tracking software to make the most of it, and then of course I’ve got to work on my bankroll.

Well, that entry certainly wasn’t supposed to take so long, but no matter, it’s Friday night and there’s still plenty of play on the tables. Now I’ve just got to decide if I want to do more experimental tournaments or grind out some cash on the fixed limit tables whilst there’s drunks and friday night fools on there.  I’ll grab a coffee to help me decide.